May 19, 2016
I like simple things and explanations. Maybe because I do not have a rocket science mind or because I am not into the theater of the absurd. In either case here is my humble thoughts on the Fedâ€¦although you all know very well my true thoughts.
I read the Fed’s minutes yesterday like many of you - well at least all you bond lovers. Still the same old stuff. Maybe-maybe dependent on conditions. I have long said that they would not raise rates, but if they do it will be in June because September is too close to the American elections and, independent or not, the Fed is loath to raise hackles.
So what if we get one more bump for the year? It is not going to be a earth-shattering event, of that you can be certain. The hike will be small and manageable even if it is ill advised. It may come, it may not come, but, I assert, it will be overtaken by the actions of the other major central banks and the inflow of capital into American securities where some yield is still attainable even if it is paltry.
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